research-document MS-AIRES-2026-0005
Context-policy causal comparison
Mission
Objective
Compare full-history, recent-window, artifact-first, selective retrieval, structured-summary, and compiled-context policies on the same audited suite.
Why this matters
The repository does not know which context policy maximizes verified outcomes per total cost or how context loss and contamination interact with task horizon.
Scope
Included: randomized paired runs, stale/conflicting-state injection, reliability, latency, retries, context volume, recovery, and cost. Excluded: changing models or harnesses during the comparison.
Existing context
research/frontier/records/RFR-005.md and Roadmap Phase 3.
Initial hypotheses
Selective or compiled context will preserve reliability at lower total cost than full history. Context omissions or contamination may reverse that result.
Required evidence
Frozen suite/configuration, randomization, run records, policy payloads, verified outcomes, recovery traces, and cost data.
Constraints
Hold model, harness, task version, and grading fixed. Report task-policy interactions rather than only aggregate effects.
Execution instructions
Predeclare policies and paired-run analysis before execution.
Deliverables
Context-policy decision table, cost/reliability frontier, and failure analysis.
Success criteria
Repeatable effect estimates sufficient to choose or reject a default context policy.
Stop conditions
Stop if task drift, grader drift, or incomplete telemetry breaks causal comparability.
Handoff requirements
Record the selected policy, exceptions, and revalidation triggers.