research-document MS-AIRES-2026-0006
Total verified-cost measurement
Mission
Objective
Operationalize total cost per verified useful outcome across compute, retries, latency, review, incidents, intervention, and recovery.
Why this matters
Token cost alone can reverse deployment decisions when human and failure costs are material.
Scope
Included: prospective resource accounting, failed-attempt costs, task-level distributions, and sensitivity analysis. Excluded: universal monetary weights unsupported by observed use cases.
Existing context
research/frontier/records/RFR-006.md and evaluation Workstream D.
Initial hypotheses
All-in cost changes at least some system or policy rankings relative to token cost. The competing result is ranking stability across plausible weights.
Required evidence
Versioned cost schema, complete run/intervention logs, valuation assumptions, sensitivity ranges, and reconciliation records.
Constraints
Separate observations from assigned weights and preserve failed runs.
Execution instructions
Instrument costs before collecting the target runs and reconcile every run.
Deliverables
Cost schema, observed dataset, sensitivity report, and decision guidance.
Success criteria
Every included run reconciles and conclusions remain explicit across plausible cost weights.
Stop conditions
Stop if missing telemetry prevents all-in reconciliation.
Handoff requirements
Provide reusable cost fields and identify the weights that materially change decisions.