research-package RP-2026-07-28-EVAL-RESULTS

AI-ROS Evaluation Results

Evaluation Results

Scope Warning

These are task-contract and grader-calibration results, not agent capability results. No AI agent was evaluated.

Cycle 002 — Task Integrity

Pilot Contract complete Complete probe Alternative-correct probe Incomplete probe Regression/defect probe Disposition
ET-004-P01 Yes Accepted Accepted Rejected as partial Rejected as regressive Provisional; independent review pending
ET-014-P01 Yes Accepted as task defect Accepted as task defect Rejected as persuasive-but-wrong N/A Provisional; independent review pending

Design review exposed two problems before baseline:

  1. storing outcomes near fixtures creates severe contamination risk unless blind fixtures are exported;
  2. exact-reference prose grading would reject semantically valid alternatives, so the pilot grader accepts a narrow semantic family and keeps human adjudication for novel language.

Cycle 003 — Deterministic Grader Calibration

Command:

python3 tools/evaluation/evalctl.py all

Observed on 2026-07-28:

  • task contracts valid: 2/2;
  • declared probe classifications matched: 7/7;
  • complete alternatives accepted: 4/4;
  • incomplete, regressive, or persuasive-wrong probes rejected/classified: 3/3.
  • blind task exports prepared without detected gold/probe files: 2/2.

What This Supports

  • Executable state checks can distinguish several important outcome classes on deliberately constructed examples (EV-E014).
  • Alternative-correct probes are practical guards against overly strict reference-patch grading.
  • Incomplete and regressive probes are practical guards against low-coverage grading.

What This Does Not Support

  • that the graders generalize to unseen outputs;
  • that independent humans agree with the labels;
  • that model-based or trajectory graders add value;
  • that any agent can complete the tasks;
  • that three runs will be enough;
  • that this documentation-heavy suite predicts coding-agent performance.

Failed/Unexecuted Tests

  • Independent double review: unavailable.
  • Blinded human adjudication: unavailable.
  • Prose-only grader false-accept test: not implemented because an uncalibrated prose grader would not provide decision-grade evidence.
  • Repeated agent baseline: deliberately blocked until independent review and blind fixture export.

Reproduction

The evaluator uses the Python standard library. A passing all command verifies contract presence and exact calibration against versioned expected labels. Fixture hashes are printed by validate.